Just getting ready to start my second mock draft of the year. Even though I’ll be drafting out of the 10th spot, I figured let the system randomly choose my draft position, just so I can get another perspective. I ended up with the 6th pick out of 10. I’m still not a big fan of ESPN’s mock drafts, but I’ll take what I can get. Just like my last one, I’ll post my thoughts as I go…
Round 1: Chase Utley
Round 2: Justin Upton
Having Utley fall to me at #6 was about the best I could hope for. Drafting Upton at #15 overall may have been a bit early, but I didn’t like any of the other guys that were available. Somehow, Kemp and Crawford went 13-14, I was hoping one of them would fall to me here.
Round 3: Grady Sizemore
Round 4: Ryan Zimmerman
Sizemore may not get me the greatest average, but he’s a legit 30/30 guy who can put up first round numbers at a discount this year. I wasn’t about to let him out of the third. Zimmerman gives me a lot of quality at third base, which again seems to be extremely shallow this season, especially when compared to past years.
Round 5: Justin Verlander
Round 6: Kendry Morales
There is a lot of quality starting pitching available late, but there weren’t all that many players I liked here more than Verlander, so I got my ace. I also got my first baseman in Kendry Morales. He’s been projected to pop another 30 bombs, along with close to 100 RBIs and a .300 AVG. If he can live up to those projections, that doesn’t put him too far behind Miguel Cabrera’s production, and he came 5 rounds later.
Round 7: Jonathan Broxton
Round 8: Chone Figgins
I was thinking about passing on Broxton here, even though I consider him the #1 reliever coming into the 2010 season. But the player before me took Mariano Rivera, and if I can start some kind of a run on closers here, that just means there’s more value to find in the later rounds. I thought about grabbing Josh Johnson here, but I can find a similar pitcher to him later on. Grabbing Figgins fills my corner IF spot, gives me some more SB, and more importantly, means there’s one less third baseman available for everyone else.
Round 9: Aaron Hill
Round 10: Elvis Andrus
I’ll take Hill here in the 9th to fill my MI spot. I usually like to have my infield filled by the 10th round, and Andrus should be a quality SS this season. I thought about taking Webb in the 9th, but I’ve never liked taking pitching all that early, especially pitchers that may not be ready to start the season.
Round 11: Jay Bruce
Round 12: John Lackey
Got me another 30-homer guy in Bruce, but I really need to stop neglecting my pitching. I love Bruce here, but I’m wondering if I should’ve taken Wandy Rodriguez here in the 11th. I’m not a big fan of Lackey this year, since his career ERA in Fenway is over 5. Then again, whenever he pitched in Fenway, it’s been against Boston. Maybe he’ll do better if he pitches against some teams with less offense.
Round 13: Brian Wilson
Round 14: Matt Garza
I guess I’m hoping San Francisco’s pitching is as good as everyone says this year, which should give Wilson plenty of save opps. I’d thought about taking Miguel Montero here, but he went the pick right before me, so I opted for Garza, who’s looking like he’ll be in for a great season. There are still a few quality catchers available somewhat late.
Round 15: Jered Weaver
Round 16: Dexter Fowler
Weaver’s not a terrible play here. I might be catching up in pitching, but I have to remember that I have two more outfield spots to fill. Fowler works fine for me, especially because there are outfielders that I have ranked a lot lower than him flying off the board.
Round 17: Clay Buchholz
Round 18: Lastings Milledge
There’s still a lot of quality starting pitching available even this late, and I can’t complain with Buchholz here in the 17th. I thought it was more important to fill my last OF spot than it was to grab my 6th starter, so I opted for Milledge over Jorge De La Rosa. Besides, Milledge wouldn’t make it back to me, but there’s at last a chance De La Rosa might.
Round 19: Bobby Jenks
Round 20: Geovany Soto
Eh, nuts. De La Rosa went right before me, so I opted for my third closer, and at least these three guys seem to have a decent grip on the closer role. I finally got my catcher filled here, by a guy who was going very early in a lot of drafts last year. I’ll take the gamble that Soto can get back to his 2008 form.
Round 21: Cody Ross
Round 22: Ben Sheets
I was really hoping Sanchez would fall to me here in the 21st, but he went one pick before me. That’s been happening a lot this draft, I’m missing out on everyone I’m targeting by one pick. Now that my team is filled (with the exception of a single pitcher’s spot), it’s time to take some gambles. And no one epitomizes gamble as much as Ben Sheets. Except Erik Bedard. And Rich Harden. Ok, ok, a lot of guys epitomize gamble. That doesn’t make it any worse of a pick.
Round 23: Kyle Blanks
Round 24: Erik Bedard
I really wanted Travis Snider with my 23rd pick. No, he didn’t go the pick before me. He went two picks before me. But Blanks has a ton of raw power, and could have about the same kind of season Snider’s going to have. And since I love cheap, high-reward pitching, a 24th round pick was certainly worth Bedard. Kurt Suzuki just went off the board; if I wasn’t able to grab Soto where I did, I would’ve targeted him to be my catcher.
Round 25: Francisco Liriano
Like I said, I love cheap, high-reward pitching. I’ve got no problem cutting these guys loose if they don’t produce, but if they do I just hit gold.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Mock Draft 1
I just finished my first mock draft of the year, here are the results. It was a 10-team mixed league, and I had the 10th overall pick, giving me two consecutive picks each time through. Since I'll be drafting 10th in my league, I thought it would give me the best idea as to what I might expect. It's not perfect, because having a keeper league changes a lot of things in the draft, but this is probably the best I could do.
1: Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
2. Evan Longoria (3B, TB)
I wasn’t ecstatic with these two here, but I’m not going to complain. I’m not sure it was worth taking a first baseman this early when it might be the deepest any position has ever been in the history of fantasy baseball. I’m feeling better about Longoria, because third base is very thin this year, and I’d rather him in the second than getting stuck with someone like Michael Young later. I just think 11th overall might be a little too early for him.
3: Robinson Cano (2B, NYY)
4: Jayson Werth (OF, Phi)
Ugh. I got myself stuck, because the only players worth taking here in these rounds were first and third basemen. Werth at #31 is just terrible, and I should have passed on Cano here and taken Zobrist in the 6th.
5: Andre Ethier (OF, LAD)
6: Johan Santana (SP, NYM)
Eh, Ethier seems to have been going a little earlier than this, so even though I don’t like it all that much, I can’t complain. I just don’t know if he’s going to repeat ’09. And again, there just wasn’t anyone here worth taking, so I opted to start up my rotation earlier than I normally would. If he’s healthy, Santana should be solid for everything (except for wins, god the Mets are terrible. I feel bad for my friends who are stuck with them as their favorite team).
7: Shane Victorino (OF, Phi)
8. Yovani Gallardo (SP, Mil)
I’m trying to put together some sort of balance here, and Victorino at least gets me some sort of speed outside of Werth. I don’t like Victorino, but I felt that I got stuck here again. Gallardo should be solid, but I might’ve been able to wait a round on him. I just realized that this particular mock draft uses a Middle Infield and Corner Infield spot, so I could’ve drafted a first or third baseman back in the third. Let that be a lesson: always check your league settings before you draft.
9: Ricky Nolasco (SP, Fla)
10: Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex)
I love Nolasco here. If Jurrjens was the luckiest pitcher on the planet last season (if he wasn’t, he was close), then Nolasco was the unluckiest. Andrus was taken a bit too early for my taste, but it made sense for me here I think. There’s a run on closers going on, and I don’t think I want to reach for one when they’re a dime a dozen anyway. My OF and IF were filled (except for short, obviously), and I already had three pitchers, so that seemed to be a more pressing concern here.
Am I unhappy with my team at this point? No, not really, but I’m not too happy about it either. Good thing it’s a mock draft and doesn’t count for anything, because I’m not sure I’d want to start the season with these guys as my first 10 picks.
11: Jose Lopez (2B, Sea)
12: Francisco Cordero (RP, Cin)
Well, I waited as long, if not longer, for a closer than I normally do. However, I don’t want my top closer to be Francisco Cordero. Whee. I should’ve taken Jose Valverde here instead. I actually like Lopez here, I’ve seen him going in the 8th round, which is a little too early for my taste, but here I’m willing to gamble that he won’t regress all that much. He’s probably the biggest power guy in the M’s lineup and at the very least should approach 100 RBI’s again.
13: Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF, Min)
14: Miguel Montero (C, Ari)
Like everyone else, I like Montero this year. He’s got a shot to add a fourth M to Mauer, Martinez and McCann on the list of elite fantasy catchers. Cuddyer’s not a bad pick here either - he’s fine for my 1B/3B spot, and he can fill in an outfield spot if need be. But wow, my average is beginning to take a beating.
15: Franklin Gutierrez (OF, Sea)
16: Roy Oswalt (SP, Hou)
I’m hoping Oswalt has one more good year left in him here. My pitching was looking a little (a lot) thin to me, and I felt I needed to draft someone as a bridge to the high-risk pitchers I’ll probably be drafting before too long. I like Gutierrez this year, and at least according to my numbers I got him a little later than his ADP. Hopefully he lives up to it. On offense, I still have my 5th OF spot and UTIL to fill, and my RP is looking pretty terrible with Cordero as my big stopper.
17: Frank Francisco (RP, Tex)
18: David Ortiz (DH, Bos)
Hopefully the Rangers are as good as everyone’s saying they are, because I could sure use a lot of saves from Francisco. I just complained about my average taking a hit, so I grab David Ortiz, who hit a marvelous .238 last season. Ugh.
19: Edwin Jackson (SP, Ari)
20: Corey Hart (OF, Mil)
Here I’m hoping Jackson pitches like he did in the first half of ‘09, and Hart turns the corner after being less valuable to the Brewers than a no-armed infielder in 2009. Too bad I’m all but bunting AVG. So my starting offense is filled, and I guess I should fill in my remaining pitching spots before too long.
21: Francisco Liriano (SP, Min)
22: Everth Cabrera (SS, SD)
I probably could have waited another round or two even before taking Liriano, but I like him enough this year that I’m willing to take the gamble he’d be worth the 210th overall pick. As for Cabrera, I like his speed, and eventually I needed to get some sort of a back-up guy on my offense. Can’t say I like a league that only has three bench spots, but I’ll live with it I guess.
23: Paul Konerko (1B, CWS)
24: Chase Headley (3B/OF, SD)
This is why I didn’t think I needed Teixeira in the first: because Konerko and his 25+ homers were still available 230th overall. I like Headley as an extra 3B/OF option, and he could break out a little bit (though Petco will probably keep him from achieving as much as he might otherwise be able to in 2010). I should’ve gambled on Bedard coming back eventually this season, instead of gambling on a guy next round, who hasn’t pitched well since the 2007 Midsummer Classic…
25: Jeremy Bonderman (SP, Det)
At this point, I’d probably end up dropping whoever I draft here anyway, so I might as well gamble that the reports are true and he’s not only healthy, but his pitches are showing the kind of life that’s been missing for 2 ½ years.
Final Roster:
C - Miguel Montero (14)
1B - Mark Teixeira (1)
2B - Robinson Cano (3)
3B - Evan Longoria (2)
SS - Elvis Andrus (10)
1B/3B - Michael Cuddyer
2B/SS - Jose Lopez (11)
OF - Jayson Werth (4)
OF - Andre Ethier (5)
OF - Shane Victorino (7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez (15)
OF - Corey Hart (20)
UTIL - David Ortiz (18)
B - Everth Cabrera (22)
B - Paul Konerko (23)
B - Chase Headley (24)
SP - Johan Santana (6)
SP - Yovani Gallardo (8)
SP - Ricky Nolasco (9)
SP - Roy Oswalt (16)
RP - Francisco Cordero (12)
RP - Frank Francisco (17)
P - Edwin Jackson (19)
P - Francisco Liriano (21)
P - Jeremy Bonderman (25)
1: Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
2. Evan Longoria (3B, TB)
I wasn’t ecstatic with these two here, but I’m not going to complain. I’m not sure it was worth taking a first baseman this early when it might be the deepest any position has ever been in the history of fantasy baseball. I’m feeling better about Longoria, because third base is very thin this year, and I’d rather him in the second than getting stuck with someone like Michael Young later. I just think 11th overall might be a little too early for him.
3: Robinson Cano (2B, NYY)
4: Jayson Werth (OF, Phi)
Ugh. I got myself stuck, because the only players worth taking here in these rounds were first and third basemen. Werth at #31 is just terrible, and I should have passed on Cano here and taken Zobrist in the 6th.
5: Andre Ethier (OF, LAD)
6: Johan Santana (SP, NYM)
Eh, Ethier seems to have been going a little earlier than this, so even though I don’t like it all that much, I can’t complain. I just don’t know if he’s going to repeat ’09. And again, there just wasn’t anyone here worth taking, so I opted to start up my rotation earlier than I normally would. If he’s healthy, Santana should be solid for everything (except for wins, god the Mets are terrible. I feel bad for my friends who are stuck with them as their favorite team).
7: Shane Victorino (OF, Phi)
8. Yovani Gallardo (SP, Mil)
I’m trying to put together some sort of balance here, and Victorino at least gets me some sort of speed outside of Werth. I don’t like Victorino, but I felt that I got stuck here again. Gallardo should be solid, but I might’ve been able to wait a round on him. I just realized that this particular mock draft uses a Middle Infield and Corner Infield spot, so I could’ve drafted a first or third baseman back in the third. Let that be a lesson: always check your league settings before you draft.
9: Ricky Nolasco (SP, Fla)
10: Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex)
I love Nolasco here. If Jurrjens was the luckiest pitcher on the planet last season (if he wasn’t, he was close), then Nolasco was the unluckiest. Andrus was taken a bit too early for my taste, but it made sense for me here I think. There’s a run on closers going on, and I don’t think I want to reach for one when they’re a dime a dozen anyway. My OF and IF were filled (except for short, obviously), and I already had three pitchers, so that seemed to be a more pressing concern here.
Am I unhappy with my team at this point? No, not really, but I’m not too happy about it either. Good thing it’s a mock draft and doesn’t count for anything, because I’m not sure I’d want to start the season with these guys as my first 10 picks.
11: Jose Lopez (2B, Sea)
12: Francisco Cordero (RP, Cin)
Well, I waited as long, if not longer, for a closer than I normally do. However, I don’t want my top closer to be Francisco Cordero. Whee. I should’ve taken Jose Valverde here instead. I actually like Lopez here, I’ve seen him going in the 8th round, which is a little too early for my taste, but here I’m willing to gamble that he won’t regress all that much. He’s probably the biggest power guy in the M’s lineup and at the very least should approach 100 RBI’s again.
13: Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF, Min)
14: Miguel Montero (C, Ari)
Like everyone else, I like Montero this year. He’s got a shot to add a fourth M to Mauer, Martinez and McCann on the list of elite fantasy catchers. Cuddyer’s not a bad pick here either - he’s fine for my 1B/3B spot, and he can fill in an outfield spot if need be. But wow, my average is beginning to take a beating.
15: Franklin Gutierrez (OF, Sea)
16: Roy Oswalt (SP, Hou)
I’m hoping Oswalt has one more good year left in him here. My pitching was looking a little (a lot) thin to me, and I felt I needed to draft someone as a bridge to the high-risk pitchers I’ll probably be drafting before too long. I like Gutierrez this year, and at least according to my numbers I got him a little later than his ADP. Hopefully he lives up to it. On offense, I still have my 5th OF spot and UTIL to fill, and my RP is looking pretty terrible with Cordero as my big stopper.
17: Frank Francisco (RP, Tex)
18: David Ortiz (DH, Bos)
Hopefully the Rangers are as good as everyone’s saying they are, because I could sure use a lot of saves from Francisco. I just complained about my average taking a hit, so I grab David Ortiz, who hit a marvelous .238 last season. Ugh.
19: Edwin Jackson (SP, Ari)
20: Corey Hart (OF, Mil)
Here I’m hoping Jackson pitches like he did in the first half of ‘09, and Hart turns the corner after being less valuable to the Brewers than a no-armed infielder in 2009. Too bad I’m all but bunting AVG. So my starting offense is filled, and I guess I should fill in my remaining pitching spots before too long.
21: Francisco Liriano (SP, Min)
22: Everth Cabrera (SS, SD)
I probably could have waited another round or two even before taking Liriano, but I like him enough this year that I’m willing to take the gamble he’d be worth the 210th overall pick. As for Cabrera, I like his speed, and eventually I needed to get some sort of a back-up guy on my offense. Can’t say I like a league that only has three bench spots, but I’ll live with it I guess.
23: Paul Konerko (1B, CWS)
24: Chase Headley (3B/OF, SD)
This is why I didn’t think I needed Teixeira in the first: because Konerko and his 25+ homers were still available 230th overall. I like Headley as an extra 3B/OF option, and he could break out a little bit (though Petco will probably keep him from achieving as much as he might otherwise be able to in 2010). I should’ve gambled on Bedard coming back eventually this season, instead of gambling on a guy next round, who hasn’t pitched well since the 2007 Midsummer Classic…
25: Jeremy Bonderman (SP, Det)
At this point, I’d probably end up dropping whoever I draft here anyway, so I might as well gamble that the reports are true and he’s not only healthy, but his pitches are showing the kind of life that’s been missing for 2 ½ years.
Final Roster:
C - Miguel Montero (14)
1B - Mark Teixeira (1)
2B - Robinson Cano (3)
3B - Evan Longoria (2)
SS - Elvis Andrus (10)
1B/3B - Michael Cuddyer
2B/SS - Jose Lopez (11)
OF - Jayson Werth (4)
OF - Andre Ethier (5)
OF - Shane Victorino (7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez (15)
OF - Corey Hart (20)
UTIL - David Ortiz (18)
B - Everth Cabrera (22)
B - Paul Konerko (23)
B - Chase Headley (24)
SP - Johan Santana (6)
SP - Yovani Gallardo (8)
SP - Ricky Nolasco (9)
SP - Roy Oswalt (16)
RP - Francisco Cordero (12)
RP - Frank Francisco (17)
P - Edwin Jackson (19)
P - Francisco Liriano (21)
P - Jeremy Bonderman (25)
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Pitchers and Catchers Set to Report
They are four words that remind us of greatness to come: pitchers and catchers report. A fresh start, a new season, another chance. There is no end to the maybes in baseball, because any team can win in this era. A long, cold winter, colder than most in recent memory, is giving way to renewed optimism.
Charles Fountain described Spring Training as sunshine - therapeutic, inspiring, been-too-long-without-ya sunshine. The beginning of Spring Training each year has always been a moment of hope, a reassurance that the landscape of snow and gray skies and barren trees will soon pass, and the world will again be green.
Baseball is pristine; the smell of the fresh-cut grass; the sight of a bright blue, cloudless sky that hurts to look into. The sound of those first cracks of the bat and pops of the glove in Florida and Arizona trumpet the beginning of the 2010 season. Days are getting longer, and warmer, and it is only a matter of time before the boys of summer take the stage at baseball’s cathedrals.
As Mark Newman of mlb.com wrote, this is the time when the great third-base coach in the sky signals that it’s time for the so-called “offseason” to head home, time for Major League Baseball to take over as it has done since before the Wight Brothers flew. The Super Bowl was the last truly meaningful matter of action in a long winter that lets baseball players, managers and fans regenerate their energy. The Lombardi Trophy has been handed over. The national pastime owns the map again. It's time to say goodbye to football and settle in for the magical marathon.
Charles Fountain described Spring Training as sunshine - therapeutic, inspiring, been-too-long-without-ya sunshine. The beginning of Spring Training each year has always been a moment of hope, a reassurance that the landscape of snow and gray skies and barren trees will soon pass, and the world will again be green.
Baseball is pristine; the smell of the fresh-cut grass; the sight of a bright blue, cloudless sky that hurts to look into. The sound of those first cracks of the bat and pops of the glove in Florida and Arizona trumpet the beginning of the 2010 season. Days are getting longer, and warmer, and it is only a matter of time before the boys of summer take the stage at baseball’s cathedrals.
As Mark Newman of mlb.com wrote, this is the time when the great third-base coach in the sky signals that it’s time for the so-called “offseason” to head home, time for Major League Baseball to take over as it has done since before the Wight Brothers flew. The Super Bowl was the last truly meaningful matter of action in a long winter that lets baseball players, managers and fans regenerate their energy. The Lombardi Trophy has been handed over. The national pastime owns the map again. It's time to say goodbye to football and settle in for the magical marathon.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Pedroia Paranoia
AKA the Bret Boone Swoon or Carlos BuyerBewarega, this phenomenon is brought on by the fear that a middle infielder coming off a great year is bound to regress horribly (props to Razzball for the name). The fear is not unfounded; most of us have probably been burned by this more often than we’d care to admit. I usually argue that position scarcity is largely overrated, but even I’m willing to admit that finding a stud at these traditionally scarce positions can give your fantasy team a big boost as you push for the championship. Nevertheless, you don’t want to overpay for those players at the expense of the rest of your team. Entering the 2010 season, there are a number of players who seem like they might fit this mold, including Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Jose Lopez, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. These players, who were probably left undrafted in a lot of leagues last season, are all of a sudden being drafted in the top 100. I’ll take a look at each player individually, and see whether their breakout performances in 2009 were simply a fluke, or a sign of better things to come.
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Aaron Hill (2B, Tor)
2009 stats: .286/.499/.829, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R, 6 SB
ADP: 29.7
Age: 27
Hill’s breakout performance in 2009 vindicated a lot of fantasy owners who saw it coming in 2008, when a concussion limited him to just 55 games, burning a lot of us in the process. This season, he’s the earliest of this group of players to be drafted, and looking at his 2009 numbers, that’s no surprise. If he replicates his 2009, there’s no question that he should be a third round pick. Hill more than doubled his previous career high in homers, and his HR and RBI totals were best among second basemen. However, there are a few numbers that give me reason to use caution.
Hill’s ISO (Isolated Power) and HR/FB (home run/fly ball) ratio were the highest of his career, by no slim margin. In 2007, when Hill hit 17 home runs in 608 at bats, he had an ISO of .168 and a HR/FB ratio of 8.6%. In 2009, those numbers were .213 and 14.9%. Now, it’s not uncommon for players to develop power, especially once they reach the magic age of 27, but these numbers are so much higher than he had in any other year, so we should expect some sort of regression toward the mean.
Hill only walked 42 times in 734 plate appearances, and that kind of plate discipline (or lack of it), along with less than 100 strikeouts, means a lot of balls are going to be put into play. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was a sustainable .289, so I’d expect him to have another season of about a .285 average, along with around 25 homers and 90 RBI’s. That’s still a valuable player, especially as a second baseman, but his ADP is a little high for that type of production. You should be able to safely pass on Hill in the third, but I wouldn’t hold it against you if you draft him there. Just don’t expect another 35 homers and 100 RBI’s. It could happen, but I’m not counting on it.
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Ben Zobrist (2B, TB)
2009 stats: .297/.543/.948, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R, 17 SB
ADP: 53
Age: 28
Zobrist’s 2009 numbers, minus the stolen bases, are about what I think we can expect from Hill this season. If Zobrist can duplicate his ‘09, he’ll be a much better value in the 5th round than Hill is in the 3rd. And unlike Hill, there is at least some reason for me to believe that these numbers are sustainable. This was Zobrist’s first full season, as he filled in for the injured Akinori Iwamura, and he made the most of his chance. Looking back, he did show a lot of this promise in 2008, where in limited duty he homered once every 16.5 at bats and walked once every 7.29 at bats. He continued that trend in 2009, with a HR/AB ratio of 18.55 and a BB/AB ratio of 5.51, showing improved plate discipline. His HR/FB ratio in 2009 was 17.5%, which helps explain his 17.4% ratio in 2008 and gives us reason to believe he can sustain it. The speed could be for real too; in the minor leagues, he stole 35 bases in 2005 and 26 in stolen bases, so stealing 15 bases again this season looks reasonable.
The one number in question here is his batting average. In 2008, his BABIP was only .255, which resulted in a .253 batting average. In 2009, his BABIP skyrocketed to a seemingly unsustainable .330, which gave him an average of .297. In 2010, his BABIP is likely to fall somewhere in between the two, but with his increased plate discipline, he shouldn’t see too much of a drop from the .297 he posted last year.
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Jason Bartlett (SS, TB)
2009 stats: .320/.490/.879, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 90 R, 30 SB
ADP: 70.2
Age: 30
The first shortstop to make the list is Bartlett, who’s currently being drafted in the late-6th/early-7th round. He doesn’t really have the power potential that Hill and Zobrist have exhibited, though he did hit more home runs last season than he did in each of his previous seasons combined. His value comes from his feet, having scored 90 runs and stealing 30 bases last season, along with a .320 batting average, good for 7th in the AL (and only percentage points behind Robinson Cano).
In 2009, Bartlett posted a ridiculous .368 BABIP, helped out in large part by a line drive rate of 26%. His patience seemed to improve as he posted a career high walk rate. He hit the ball harder than he ever did before, hitting the five longest home runs of his career, and eight of his 14 homers cleared the fence by “plenty“. Even though he had 6 “just enough” homers that barely cleared the fence, it’s difficult to think he lucked his way into those 14 homers.
However, according to hardballtimes, his xBABIP (Expected Batting Average on Balls In Play) was only about .337, which means he should have posted a line of .279/.348/.449, something a lot closer to the mean. He does appear to have made some adjustments to his offensive game, so some of this improvement is bound to stay. He may not pop 14 homers and steal 30 bases, and he probably won’t hit .320 again, but his regression may not be as horrible as some might think. He’s probably good for a batting average of around .290 or so, along with 10 bombs and 25 steals. He’s a player worth having on a lot of teams, but it’s a safe bet that he won’t life up to his ADP, and you might be better off drafting a safer option at short.
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Jose Lopez (2B, Sea)
2009 stats: .272/.412/.715, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 69 R, 3 SB
ADP: 80.1
Age: 26
Lopez is looking like the biggest power source in the Mariners’ young lineup, and with Chone Figgins joining Ichiro at the top of the order, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lopez to meet or surpass his 96 RBI’s from 2009. His home runs, on the other hand, are a different story.
Lopez has seen over 500 at-bats in each of the last 4 seasons, so he’s at the very least consistently healthy. In each of these years, his HR/FB rate has increased from 5.7% in 2006 up to 11.1% in 2009, something that is often seen as players approach 27 years old. His FB%, however, made a pretty significant jump in 2009, up to 40.8% after having a rate of 35.6% in 2008. His home/road splits are worth mentioning: of the 25 home runs he hit in 2009, 17 of them came away from the spacious Safeco Field. It’s difficult to maintain those types of splits, and there is reason to expect some regression back to around 20 homers in 2010.
His 69 runs in 2009 stand out to me, which can help be explained by his .288 career BABIP. He’s walked a pathetic 111 times in his entire career, spanning over 2,700 at bats, showing that he just doesn‘t get on base as much as he otherwise could. He may improve a little bit in average (though that’s not a guarantee with his career BABIP), but he simply doesn’t get on base enough to score a ton of runs. If you miss out on one of the top-tiered second basemen, do you want to reach for Lopez early? If he’s still around a couple rounds later, he’d be a lot more valuable, but I’m not sure he’s worth this high of a draft pick.
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Marco Scutaro (SS, Bos)
2009 stats: .282/.409/.789, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 14 SB
ADP: 143.6
Age: 34
In 2009, Scutaro set career highs in batting average, hits, home runs, doubles, runs, walks, stolen bases, and he tied his career high in RBI. That’s a lot of career highs for a then-33 year old middle infielder with a career batting average of about .260. A year older, there are plenty of reasons to believe he’ll regress to his usual self, but he moved into the cozy confines of Fenway Park, and has a much better lineup around him, so it’s worth at least taking a look at him and see if he’ll be a valuable middle infielder again.
First off, it’s worth noting that Scutaro has a career batting average of .290 at Fenway Park, almost 30 points higher than his career AVG. But the number that sticks out to me is his 2009 line with an 0-2 count. From 2000-2008, MLB players posted an average line of .162/.173/.236, while in 2009 Scutaro hit an astonishing .364/.353/.576, including a BABIP of .458. For the sake of comparison, Albert Pujols (arguably the best hitter on the planet) only managed a line of .196/.208/.413 with a BABIP of .273. There is just no way he can replicate this stat, and he‘ll fall back to Earth this season. While this only counts in a very limited number of situations, there are other areas of concern.
Scutaro’s sudden jump in power was helped by a career high FB rate of 45%, a full 9-point increase from 2008. His BABIP wasn’t all that high at about .310, but it was still considerably higher than his career average. Any time a player, especially at such an advanced age, sees this sort of a jump in productivity, it ought to send up some red flags. Fenway Park is a little more hitter-friendly, so it’s possible he’ll reach an average of about .280, but he is unlikely to reach any of his 2009 numbers. He used to bat at the top of the lineup in Toronto, and now he’s all of a sudden a #9 hitter, so it’s likely he’ll have fewer RBI opportunities, and he will probably score fewer runs. He’ll be in the lower-tier of AL shortstops, and in deep-mixed or AL-only leagues, he should be a decent play. In more shallow leagues, he’d be an adequate back-up SS or MI, but if you’re looking for your starting shortstop, you can do better.
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Aaron Hill (2B, Tor)
2009 stats: .286/.499/.829, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R, 6 SB
ADP: 29.7
Age: 27
Hill’s breakout performance in 2009 vindicated a lot of fantasy owners who saw it coming in 2008, when a concussion limited him to just 55 games, burning a lot of us in the process. This season, he’s the earliest of this group of players to be drafted, and looking at his 2009 numbers, that’s no surprise. If he replicates his 2009, there’s no question that he should be a third round pick. Hill more than doubled his previous career high in homers, and his HR and RBI totals were best among second basemen. However, there are a few numbers that give me reason to use caution.
Hill’s ISO (Isolated Power) and HR/FB (home run/fly ball) ratio were the highest of his career, by no slim margin. In 2007, when Hill hit 17 home runs in 608 at bats, he had an ISO of .168 and a HR/FB ratio of 8.6%. In 2009, those numbers were .213 and 14.9%. Now, it’s not uncommon for players to develop power, especially once they reach the magic age of 27, but these numbers are so much higher than he had in any other year, so we should expect some sort of regression toward the mean.
Hill only walked 42 times in 734 plate appearances, and that kind of plate discipline (or lack of it), along with less than 100 strikeouts, means a lot of balls are going to be put into play. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was a sustainable .289, so I’d expect him to have another season of about a .285 average, along with around 25 homers and 90 RBI’s. That’s still a valuable player, especially as a second baseman, but his ADP is a little high for that type of production. You should be able to safely pass on Hill in the third, but I wouldn’t hold it against you if you draft him there. Just don’t expect another 35 homers and 100 RBI’s. It could happen, but I’m not counting on it.
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Ben Zobrist (2B, TB)
2009 stats: .297/.543/.948, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R, 17 SB
ADP: 53
Age: 28
Zobrist’s 2009 numbers, minus the stolen bases, are about what I think we can expect from Hill this season. If Zobrist can duplicate his ‘09, he’ll be a much better value in the 5th round than Hill is in the 3rd. And unlike Hill, there is at least some reason for me to believe that these numbers are sustainable. This was Zobrist’s first full season, as he filled in for the injured Akinori Iwamura, and he made the most of his chance. Looking back, he did show a lot of this promise in 2008, where in limited duty he homered once every 16.5 at bats and walked once every 7.29 at bats. He continued that trend in 2009, with a HR/AB ratio of 18.55 and a BB/AB ratio of 5.51, showing improved plate discipline. His HR/FB ratio in 2009 was 17.5%, which helps explain his 17.4% ratio in 2008 and gives us reason to believe he can sustain it. The speed could be for real too; in the minor leagues, he stole 35 bases in 2005 and 26 in stolen bases, so stealing 15 bases again this season looks reasonable.
The one number in question here is his batting average. In 2008, his BABIP was only .255, which resulted in a .253 batting average. In 2009, his BABIP skyrocketed to a seemingly unsustainable .330, which gave him an average of .297. In 2010, his BABIP is likely to fall somewhere in between the two, but with his increased plate discipline, he shouldn’t see too much of a drop from the .297 he posted last year.
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Jason Bartlett (SS, TB)
2009 stats: .320/.490/.879, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 90 R, 30 SB
ADP: 70.2
Age: 30
The first shortstop to make the list is Bartlett, who’s currently being drafted in the late-6th/early-7th round. He doesn’t really have the power potential that Hill and Zobrist have exhibited, though he did hit more home runs last season than he did in each of his previous seasons combined. His value comes from his feet, having scored 90 runs and stealing 30 bases last season, along with a .320 batting average, good for 7th in the AL (and only percentage points behind Robinson Cano).
In 2009, Bartlett posted a ridiculous .368 BABIP, helped out in large part by a line drive rate of 26%. His patience seemed to improve as he posted a career high walk rate. He hit the ball harder than he ever did before, hitting the five longest home runs of his career, and eight of his 14 homers cleared the fence by “plenty“. Even though he had 6 “just enough” homers that barely cleared the fence, it’s difficult to think he lucked his way into those 14 homers.
However, according to hardballtimes, his xBABIP (Expected Batting Average on Balls In Play) was only about .337, which means he should have posted a line of .279/.348/.449, something a lot closer to the mean. He does appear to have made some adjustments to his offensive game, so some of this improvement is bound to stay. He may not pop 14 homers and steal 30 bases, and he probably won’t hit .320 again, but his regression may not be as horrible as some might think. He’s probably good for a batting average of around .290 or so, along with 10 bombs and 25 steals. He’s a player worth having on a lot of teams, but it’s a safe bet that he won’t life up to his ADP, and you might be better off drafting a safer option at short.
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Jose Lopez (2B, Sea)
2009 stats: .272/.412/.715, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 69 R, 3 SB
ADP: 80.1
Age: 26
Lopez is looking like the biggest power source in the Mariners’ young lineup, and with Chone Figgins joining Ichiro at the top of the order, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lopez to meet or surpass his 96 RBI’s from 2009. His home runs, on the other hand, are a different story.
Lopez has seen over 500 at-bats in each of the last 4 seasons, so he’s at the very least consistently healthy. In each of these years, his HR/FB rate has increased from 5.7% in 2006 up to 11.1% in 2009, something that is often seen as players approach 27 years old. His FB%, however, made a pretty significant jump in 2009, up to 40.8% after having a rate of 35.6% in 2008. His home/road splits are worth mentioning: of the 25 home runs he hit in 2009, 17 of them came away from the spacious Safeco Field. It’s difficult to maintain those types of splits, and there is reason to expect some regression back to around 20 homers in 2010.
His 69 runs in 2009 stand out to me, which can help be explained by his .288 career BABIP. He’s walked a pathetic 111 times in his entire career, spanning over 2,700 at bats, showing that he just doesn‘t get on base as much as he otherwise could. He may improve a little bit in average (though that’s not a guarantee with his career BABIP), but he simply doesn’t get on base enough to score a ton of runs. If you miss out on one of the top-tiered second basemen, do you want to reach for Lopez early? If he’s still around a couple rounds later, he’d be a lot more valuable, but I’m not sure he’s worth this high of a draft pick.
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Marco Scutaro (SS, Bos)
2009 stats: .282/.409/.789, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 14 SB
ADP: 143.6
Age: 34
In 2009, Scutaro set career highs in batting average, hits, home runs, doubles, runs, walks, stolen bases, and he tied his career high in RBI. That’s a lot of career highs for a then-33 year old middle infielder with a career batting average of about .260. A year older, there are plenty of reasons to believe he’ll regress to his usual self, but he moved into the cozy confines of Fenway Park, and has a much better lineup around him, so it’s worth at least taking a look at him and see if he’ll be a valuable middle infielder again.
First off, it’s worth noting that Scutaro has a career batting average of .290 at Fenway Park, almost 30 points higher than his career AVG. But the number that sticks out to me is his 2009 line with an 0-2 count. From 2000-2008, MLB players posted an average line of .162/.173/.236, while in 2009 Scutaro hit an astonishing .364/.353/.576, including a BABIP of .458. For the sake of comparison, Albert Pujols (arguably the best hitter on the planet) only managed a line of .196/.208/.413 with a BABIP of .273. There is just no way he can replicate this stat, and he‘ll fall back to Earth this season. While this only counts in a very limited number of situations, there are other areas of concern.
Scutaro’s sudden jump in power was helped by a career high FB rate of 45%, a full 9-point increase from 2008. His BABIP wasn’t all that high at about .310, but it was still considerably higher than his career average. Any time a player, especially at such an advanced age, sees this sort of a jump in productivity, it ought to send up some red flags. Fenway Park is a little more hitter-friendly, so it’s possible he’ll reach an average of about .280, but he is unlikely to reach any of his 2009 numbers. He used to bat at the top of the lineup in Toronto, and now he’s all of a sudden a #9 hitter, so it’s likely he’ll have fewer RBI opportunities, and he will probably score fewer runs. He’ll be in the lower-tier of AL shortstops, and in deep-mixed or AL-only leagues, he should be a decent play. In more shallow leagues, he’d be an adequate back-up SS or MI, but if you’re looking for your starting shortstop, you can do better.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Welcome to the first installment of The WHIP-ping Boy’s fantasy baseball blog!
Eh, it really isn’t exciting enough to warrant an exclamation point, to be frank. I had a couple people ask me, with all the work I put into fantasy baseball each season, if I’d ever start a blog, so here it is. Like the text at the top says, this is where I’ll chronicle my fantasy baseball league as I begin my quest to win a third consecutive title, along with news and tips for each part of the season. I’m beginning my draft preparations now (a little earlier than usual, but I may not have the time as it gets closer to the draft, so it‘s probably best to get it taken care of now), along with a couple of articles which I’ll post when they’re done. Obviously, I don’t want to give too much away, so a lot of the real in-depth analysis might have to wait until after my draft, which will be held on March 6.
Just to give a little background on myself and what I‘m getting ready for, I’m a fantasy baseball geek who started playing somewhere around 1999, which would make this my 12th year playing this game. I started out way back when on Sandbox, where in 2000 Cristian Guzman carried my team to my first ever league win with his 20 triples, something that counted for a lot of points, for some reason. I’ve since moved away from points leagues, and usually stick with H2H or Roto, both of which have their pros and cons. I left Sandbox after that season (and I don’t even know if they still have fantasy games there anymore) and started playing on Yahoo, where I stayed for a few years until I gave ESPN a try. It’s really just a personal preference; I like the layout on ESPN better than Yahoo, so that’s where I spend my time these days.
A few years ago, I started up a keeper league with some friends of mine, and after a few changes, it seems like we’ve finally found settings that work out the best for us. It’s a standard 5x5 H2H league, 23 roster spots, and 5 keepers per team. Since none of us really have any money, it’s only $50 to play, with 50% going to the winner, 25, 15 and 10% to 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers. Keepers are based on what round they were drafted in; if they were kept the previous year, they’ll cost a 1st (then 2nd, then 3rd, and so on) round pick. Everyone else can be kept in the round they were drafted in, and any free agent or waiver wire pick ups will cost a 23rd (then 22nd, etc) round pick. With about 4 weeks to go until the draft, I’m looking at the following possibilities:
1st Round
Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
Chase Utley (2B, Phi)
Grady Sizemore (OF, Cle)
Roy Halladay (SP, Phi)
8th Round
Felix Hernandez (SP, Sea)
23rd Round
Curtis Grander son (OF, NYY)
BJ Upton (OF, TB)
Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B, SF)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was)
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col)
Justin Upton (OF, Ari)
I have narrowed to two possibilities, but with other players in the league still waiting to make their keeper selections, I don’t want to give too much information away, so you’ll have to guess as to who my selections are going to be until closer to the draft.
Not really too much else to say. Like I said earlier, I’ve begun my preparations and will be posting a few strategy articles here and there until the draft. Once the draft takes place, I’ll post a rundown of my picks, along with my thinking behind each one and my overall strategy.
Just to give a little background on myself and what I‘m getting ready for, I’m a fantasy baseball geek who started playing somewhere around 1999, which would make this my 12th year playing this game. I started out way back when on Sandbox, where in 2000 Cristian Guzman carried my team to my first ever league win with his 20 triples, something that counted for a lot of points, for some reason. I’ve since moved away from points leagues, and usually stick with H2H or Roto, both of which have their pros and cons. I left Sandbox after that season (and I don’t even know if they still have fantasy games there anymore) and started playing on Yahoo, where I stayed for a few years until I gave ESPN a try. It’s really just a personal preference; I like the layout on ESPN better than Yahoo, so that’s where I spend my time these days.
A few years ago, I started up a keeper league with some friends of mine, and after a few changes, it seems like we’ve finally found settings that work out the best for us. It’s a standard 5x5 H2H league, 23 roster spots, and 5 keepers per team. Since none of us really have any money, it’s only $50 to play, with 50% going to the winner, 25, 15 and 10% to 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers. Keepers are based on what round they were drafted in; if they were kept the previous year, they’ll cost a 1st (then 2nd, then 3rd, and so on) round pick. Everyone else can be kept in the round they were drafted in, and any free agent or waiver wire pick ups will cost a 23rd (then 22nd, etc) round pick. With about 4 weeks to go until the draft, I’m looking at the following possibilities:
1st Round
Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
Chase Utley (2B, Phi)
Grady Sizemore (OF, Cle)
Roy Halladay (SP, Phi)
8th Round
Felix Hernandez (SP, Sea)
23rd Round
Curtis Grander son (OF, NYY)
BJ Upton (OF, TB)
Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B, SF)
Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was)
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col)
Justin Upton (OF, Ari)
I have narrowed to two possibilities, but with other players in the league still waiting to make their keeper selections, I don’t want to give too much information away, so you’ll have to guess as to who my selections are going to be until closer to the draft.
Not really too much else to say. Like I said earlier, I’ve begun my preparations and will be posting a few strategy articles here and there until the draft. Once the draft takes place, I’ll post a rundown of my picks, along with my thinking behind each one and my overall strategy.
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